# Black Friday Ads Are Mostly Won or Lost in Early November Canonical page: https://sunlocke.com/articles/black-friday-ads-strategy Page type: article ## Summary Plan Black Friday ads backward from November 27. Get every ad and landing page approved by November 20, give automated bidding time to settle before the sale, and change little more than budgets once it starts. Google and Meta review every new ad, and their bidding needs time to settle after a big change. Cost per result tends to rise with budget, so a change that restarts review or learning during the sale costs the most. Black Friday ads mostly succeed or fail on work done in early November, because new ads need time to clear review and automated bidding needs time to learn. By the sale weekend, only budgets should change. ## Article details Google and Meta review every new ad, and their bidding needs time to settle after a big change. Cost per result tends to rise with budget, so a change that restarts review or learning during the sale costs the most. ## Main point Black Friday ads mostly succeed or fail on work done in early November, because new ads need time to clear review and automated bidding needs time to learn. By the sale weekend, only budgets should change. Author: Chris Martinez Section: Strategy Post type: Playbook Story format: standard ## Article content Plan Black Friday ads backward from the sale, and do most of the work before the week itself. By about November 20, every ad, landing page, and conversion action (the sale or inquiry Google counts as a result) should be approved and tested, and any new campaign or bid strategy should be running early enough to finish learning before Black Friday on November 27. Before the sale starts, tell Google to expect more clicks to turn into sales on those days. During the sale, through Cyber Monday on November 30, change as little as possible: adjust budgets and leave the ads themselves alone. The two platforms differ in audience and intent, as [Google Ads versus Meta Ads](/articles/google-ads-vs-meta-ads) sets out, but three mechanics are common to both. Google and Meta review ads before they run, recalibrate after significant changes, and tend to charge more per result as you push more money through them. A plan that leaves creative or structure to the last week pays for all three during the four sale days. ## Recalculate what a sale is worth Before touching any campaign setting, write down three numbers: * The most you can pay for an order or booking at the discounted price. * The total you will spend between November 20 and November 30. * The cost per result at which you will pull back. The first number changes when you discount. A discount comes out of margin, so the ceiling that worked in October is usually too high in November. _Hypothetical_ A store keeps $60 of gross profit on a typical $150 order and is willing to spend half of that to win the order, a ceiling of $30. During a 25 percent off sale, the same order keeps $22.50, and half of that is about $11. Unless the sale raises conversion rates enough to cover the gap, last month's bids now buy unprofitable orders faster. Whether a campaign has earned more money at all is a separate question, answered in [when to increase an ad budget](/articles/when-to-increase-ad-budget). Black Friday leaves less time to answer it, which is why the ceiling is set before the sale. ## Build in early November, not Black Friday week On Google, Smart Bidding (Google's automatic bidding, which sets each bid for you) shows a Learning status after structural changes. Google lists three causes: * Creating or reactivating a bid strategy. * Adding campaigns, ad groups, or keywords to it, or removing them. * Significantly changing the conversion goals it optimizes for. Changes to budgets, targets, ads, or targeting do not set it off. Google says the Learning label never lasts more than seven days, but that performance takes one to two conversion cycles, meaning the time from click to conversion, to settle on a new goal. A strategy set up on November 23 is likely to still be settling on November 27. If your conversion cycle is about a week, the second week of November is the latest sensible start for anything new. Meta works on a similar principle with a firmer number. An ad set, Meta's group of ads that share one audience and budget, usually leaves the learning phase after about 50 results in the week after its last significant edit, and Meta says performance is less stable and cost per result usually higher while it learns. A significant edit includes pausing the ad set or changing its optimization event (the result Meta is told to find, such as a purchase), audience, or creative. Budget and bid strategy changes may count too, depending on their size. For a Meta plan, that means deciding early which ad sets will carry the sale and launching them with the audience and optimization event they will keep. It also means planning the one creative change you cannot avoid, the switch to sale creative, as a single scheduled event rather than a series of tweaks. If an ad set rarely reaches 50 results a week, it will likely show Learning limited (Meta's label for an ad set that cannot get enough results to finish learning) through the sale. Meta's advice is to combine similar ad sets so they pool what they learn, and that is better done now than during the sale. ## Get every ad approved before Thanksgiving Google says most ads are reviewed within one business day, that some need a more complex review and take longer, and that editing an ad or its assets restarts the review. Meta says most ads are reviewed within 24 hours, sometimes longer, and that ads can be reviewed again after they go live. Black Friday follows Thanksgiving, so counting in business days matters. Submit sale ads by Friday, November 20. Neither platform sets that date, though Google's help page advises submitting an ad several days ahead when it must be approved by a particular date. November 20 is a working margin that leaves several business days of slack if a review stalls or an ad is rejected, and a business with a longer approval history on both platforms could reasonably cut it closer. On Meta, schedule them: a scheduled ad goes through review when you submit it and starts delivering on its start date. Meta's review rules also tell you which weekend changes avoid a new review. Edits to targeting, creative, optimization, or the billing event trigger a new review. Changes to bid amount, budget, or the ad set schedule do not. A large budget change can still restart Meta's learning phase, which is one more reason to raise budgets in steps. ## Give Search and Performance Max separate jobs Skip this section if you run only Search campaigns. Performance Max is Google's automated campaign type that runs ads across Google's networks, including Search, from one campaign. If you run both, Google decides which one serves a given search. A Search keyword in exact match that is identical to the search term takes priority over Performance Max. Performance Max search themes rank alongside phrase and broad match keywords. Google's help page on how it prioritizes ad groups and asset groups adds a limit that matters in a sale. It notes that a campaign restricted by its budget cannot always trigger its keywords, and that the daily budget can affect whether these priority rules apply. Raise the Performance Max budget for Black Friday while the Search budget stays capped, and Performance Max can start picking up searches your Search campaign was built to own, including searches for your own brand. Two steps keep the overlap down: * If you raise the Performance Max budget, raise the Search budget too. * Add your brand name as an exclusion in Performance Max, and use negative keywords, so it does not take over searches for your own business. The general choice between the two campaign types is covered in [Search versus Performance Max](/articles/search-vs-performance-max); for this season, a Performance Max campaign launched for the first time in mid November is likely to still be settling during the sale. ## Use a seasonality adjustment for the sale days only Smart Bidding predicts conversion rates from recent history, and a four day sale is not in recent history. Google's seasonality adjustments let you tell it to expect a change in conversion rate for a set period. They apply to Search, Shopping, Demand Gen, and Display campaigns using Target CPA (a goal cost per sale) or Target ROAS (a goal return for every dollar spent), and to Performance Max with any bid strategy. Google calls them ideal for short events of one to seven days, says they may not work as well beyond 14 days, and says no negative adjustment is needed when the event ends. Set one adjustment covering November 27 through November 30, using the conversion rate change you actually saw during last year's sale. If you have no history, keep the estimate modest. Do not stretch it across all of November, and do not use one for ordinary ups and downs; Google says to use seasonality adjustments only when you expect major changes in conversion rate, because Smart Bidding already manages seasonal events. ## Make the page and the tracking ready first An approved ad that lands on a slow or confused page wastes the most expensive clicks of the year. The page should repeat the offer from the ad, run it on the same dates the [holiday email and text calendar](/articles/holiday-email-and-sms-plan) uses, state its end date, and make the next step obvious, the same standard any [landing page behind a paid click](/articles/ppc-landing-page) has to meet. Stores should also work through the [Black Friday website checklist](/articles/black-friday-website-checklist) for speed, checkout, and stock, because ads still pointing at a sold out product keep spending without producing orders. Test conversion tracking with a real purchase or inquiry before November 20, and if Google is not counting conversions yet, start with [setting up Google Ads conversion tracking](/articles/google-ads-conversion-tracking). A seasonality adjustment and every budget decision during the sale depend on that count being right. ## Expect costs to rise, and decide when to stop Meta states the mechanism directly: when a budget is significantly higher than usual, its system captures the lowest cost opportunities first and then moves on to more costly ones, and the increase in cost per result may be temporary or sustained. Google's budget rules affect how fast the money goes. A campaign can spend up to twice its average daily budget on a given day. Over a whole month, Google keeps spend to no more than 30.4 times the average daily budget. Raise the daily budget for the sale and a single day can spend up to twice the new figure. Do not scale when any of these is true: * The conversion count has not been tested since the last site or checkout change. * Cost per result has run above the ceiling you recalculated for the discount for a full day. * The products being advertised are low in stock, or the booking calendar is already full. * Google's impression share reports show a Search campaign is missing searches because its ads rank too low rather than because the budget ran out, a problem more money will not fix. Write the rule before the sale starts and check it at a set time each day. For example: if cost per sale stays above the ceiling for a full day, return the budget to its November baseline and leave it there. ## After Cyber Monday The seasonality adjustment ends on its own. Return budgets to their pre sale level on December 1 and pause the sale ads rather than editing them, since an edit triggers a new review. On Meta, pausing an ad set counts as a significant edit, and so does changing the creative an ad set runs, so expect any ad set that keeps running into December to relearn. Then compare the cost per sale from November 27 to 30 against the ceiling you wrote down, and keep those notes for 2027. Source: Google Ads Help: About seasonality adjustments Google's help page on seasonality adjustments. It lists the campaign types and bid strategies that can use them, calls them ideal for events of one to seven days, and says to use them only for major changes in conversion rate. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/10369906 Source: Google Ads Help: About Smart Bidding learning Google's help page on Smart Bidding learning. It lists the three changes that cause a Learning status, says budget and targeting changes do not, and says performance takes one to two conversion cycles to settle. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/13020501 Source: Google Ads Help: About the ad review process Google's help page on ad review. It says most ads are reviewed within one business day, that edits restart the review, and that ads needed by a set date should be submitted several days ahead. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/1722120 Source: Google Ads Help: About Performance Max campaigns Google's overview of Performance Max. It says exact match Search keywords take priority over Performance Max, that search themes rank with phrase and broad match keywords, and that brand exclusions and negative keywords are available. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/10724817 Source: Google Ads Help: About ad group and asset group prioritization within a Google Ads account Google's rules for choosing between Search and Performance Max on the same search. It says a campaign held back by its budget cannot always trigger its keywords, and that the daily budget can affect whether the rules apply. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2756257 Source: Google Ads Help: About overdelivery and your average daily budget Google's explanation that a campaign can spend up to twice its average daily budget on a given day and no more than 30.4 times it in a month. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/1704443 Source: Meta Business Help Center: About ads in review Meta's help page on ad review. It says most ads are reviewed within 24 hours, that scheduled ads are reviewed when submitted, and which edits send an ad back into review. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://www.facebook.com/business/help/204798856225114 Source: Meta Business Help Center: About the learning phase Meta's help page on the learning phase. It says an ad set usually leaves learning after about 50 results in the week after its last significant edit, and that costs usually run higher until then. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://www.facebook.com/business/help/112167992830700 Source: Meta Business Help Center: Last significant edit Meta's definition of a significant edit, the kind of change that can restart learning. It says budget and bid strategy changes may also count, depending on their size. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://www.facebook.com/business/help/942374239243867 Source: Meta Business Help Center: Best practices to potentially reduce cost per result Meta's advice on cost per result. It explains that a budget far above usual buys the cheapest opportunities first and then costlier ones, which can raise cost per result. Accessed October 20, 2026. Reference: https://www.facebook.com/business/help/321695409726523 ## Related services * [Paid Advertisements](/paid-ads): Spend tied to revenue, not impressions. We build, test, and cut campaigns against the numbers that actually move your bottom line.